Humble Group: FX movements weigh on estimates - ABG

'25e-'27e EBITA down 13-8%
Adverse impact from stronger SEK
'25e EV/EBITA ~8x, ~50% below peers


What to expect in Q1'25

We expect sales of SEK 1,930m for Q1'25, implying 7% organic y-o-y growth in addition to a 2% FX headwind (March carries a disproportionately large impact in Q1). Moreover, the Easter holidays occur in mid-to-late April in 2025 compared to late March to early April in 2024, adversely impacting growth comps. We anticipate a gross margin of just short of 31%, in line with the previous year's level. Our updated EBITA estimate is SEK 119m, which corresponds to an EBITA margin of 6.2%. On a y-o-y basis, this implies a decline, but investors should note that EBITA is slightly lower y-o-y due to the sale and leaseback of real estate. Adjusting for that, y-o-y EBITA growth is more or less zero. We anticipate a working capital release in Q1, to the tune of SEK 90m, as we anticipate some tie-up due to the timing of the Easter holidays.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/humble-group/Equity-research/2025/4/humble-group---fx-movements-weigh-on-estimates/