Gentoo Media: Ready for cash flow delivery - ABG

Q4e: organic growth acceleration to 20%, stable margin
Small adj. EBITDA downgrades for '24e-'26e
Strong FCF generation from Q4e: 15% '25e FCF yield ex. M&A


Q4e to show acceleration in organic growth

We expect Gentoo Media to deliver organic growth in Q4 of 20%, up from 12% in Q3, and an adj. EBITDA margin of 47.6%. This results in sales at the low end of the FY'24 sales guidance range of EUR 125-135m, and an EBITDA margin close to the mid-point. In Q4, we highlight good seasonality in Casino, while Gentoo's underlying growth appears better than in Q3, which was dampened by player-friendly sports results (>6pp headwind likely). We expect the margin to remain stable, highlighting Gentoo's impressive Media margin stability, hovering around 47% in every quarter over the last four years.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/gentoo-media/Equity-research/2025/2/gentoo-media---ready-for-cash-flow-delivery-/