Gaming Innovation Group: Approaching the split with a solid Q1e - ABG

12% organic growth on tough P&S comps...
...while we expect an acceleration from Q2
Trading at ~6x '24e EV/EBITDA, 15% below peers avg.


Expect solid Q1 with adj. EBITDA up 33% y-o-y

We forecast Q1 normalised sales and adj. EBITDA of EUR 38m and EUR 16m, respectively, for sales growth of 35% y-o-y (of which 12% org.) and a margin of 40.5%. The sequential comps in Media are tough following a very strong Q4, and we cautiously await comments from management regarding Google's recent update and what impact it may have on some GiG brands. The large number of FTD's sent on rev-share contracts is comforting, but we expect a small underlying revenue decline q-o-q, while KaFe Rocks is supporting inorganically. In Platform and Sportsbook, we are keen on seeing the long-term growth potential materialise, but we believe that it is too early to see any material P&L impact from the sharply improved pipeline since the new P&S CEO took the helm. On the margin, we estimate a small increase q-o-q on better mix, with KaFe Rocks being margin accretive.

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