G5 Entertainment: We expect 14% adj. EBIT growth - ABG

Q4 due on 13 February
Negative organic growth but +14% adj. EBIT y-o-y
Share is trading at 6x EV/EBIT in 2025e


Q4 expectations

We expect the negative organic growth headwinds to continue, but for the margin to improve and earnings adjusted for one-offs last year to increase. Management said after Q3 that Oct. had started well, and we can see that Sherlock has continued to trend positively in Q4. However, we believe Hidden City has continued to weaken somewhat while seasonality and FX should make sales for the game stay relatively flat q-o-q. We expect group sales of SEK 282m, -11% y-o-y (-17% in Q3), of which -12% organic and +1% FX. We expect costs to remain fairly flat q-o-q, only up ~SEK 3m from higher user acquisition costs, which we expect will lead to a higher EBIT margin. We also expect positive FX effects of SEK 5m to boost the margin. Adjusted for FX, we expect a margin of 10% (12% incl. FX effects) compared to 9% in Q3 and 8% in Q4'23, rendering an adj. EBIT of SEK 28m, +14% y-o-y (SEK 33m including FX effects). This means we expect G5 to deliver SEK 106m in adj. EBIT and a SEK 117m net profit for 2024. Given the lower capitalisation of R&D, we expect cash conversion to stay high, for SEK 135m lease adj. FCF in 2024.

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