G5 Entertainment: Minor estimate cuts after Q3 - ABG

Q3 weaker, but entering Q4 with better momentum
EBIT estimates cut by 3% on '25e-'26e
Share is trading at 4x EV/EBIT and EV/FCF on 2025e


Weaker sales but strong cash flow

G5 delivered Q3 sales 6% below both our and FactSet consensus' expectation, which led to EBIT 11% below ABGSCe and consensus. Lower tax cost meant that net profit was more in line (SEK 24m, -3% vs. ABGSCe SEK 25m and 2% vs. cons. SEK 24m). The sales decline was driven by lower sales across the game portfolio, with a slightly accelerated decline for Sherlock. That said, we see that Sherlock has returned to the top-grossing lists in October and November, and management also said that the seasonal upswing at the start of Q4 from the low season in Q3 has been stronger than in recent years. As such, we expect sales to increase 6% q-o-q in Q4e. Free cash flow was strong at SEK 57m in Q3, leading to a LTM free cash flow of SEK 174m (135m), although this is boosted by SEK 31m in reduced working capital. This corresponds to a 170% conversion from LTM EBIT of SEK 102m. Given a slightly lower revenue base for 2025e and normalised working capital swings, we forecast SEK 117m FCF in 2025e (104% conversion from EBIT).

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/g5-entertainment/Equity-research/2024/11/g5-entertainment---minor-estimate-cuts-after-q3/