Flexion Mobile: Interesting pipeline for H2 - ABG

Solid sales growth (14% y-o-y) and positive FCF
EBIT estimates down slightly on higher opex in Q2
7-5x EV/EBIT in '25e-'26e with 12% sales CAGR in '23-'26e


Sales at top-end of guidance, EBIT slightly weaker vs ABGSCe

Flexion delivered Q2 sales at the high-end of its guidance (USD 22.5m or GBP 17.7m vs. guidance of USD 20-23m) and 2% above our forecast for a growth of 14% y-o-y (17% Distribution, -9% Marketing). EBITDA was a bit weaker at GBP 1.0m vs our forecast of GBP 1.6m. In addition, depreciations remained at higher levels (GBP 2.0m, up vs. GBP 0.6m in Q2'23) leading to a weaker EBIT of GBP -0.8m vs our forecast of GBP 0.9m. The EBIT continues to be burdened by game right amortisations while the free cash flow was positive at GBP 0.2m (GBP 0.8m). We raise our sales forecast slightly on the back of the report, but opex levels a bit more, for a negative revision to EBIT — we cut '24e-'26e EBIT from GBP 2/4/5m to GBP 1/3/4m compared to our FCF estimates of GBP 4/3/3m.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/flexion-mobile/Equity-research/2024/8/flexion-mobile---interesting-pipeline-for-h2/