Ferronordic: Striking gold across the Atlantic - Nordea

We view the Q3 report as weak, as the EBIT loss more than doubled q/q (to SEK -28m at the group level) owing to weaker performance in both Germany and Kazakhstan due to factors such as mix and wage inflation. We also note that macro remains soft, and we expect group organic sales to decline by 9% y/y in 2024. The CEO mentioned that it will be tough to reach breakeven in Germany in 2023. However, all eyes are on the recent US dealership platform acquisition (we estimate a price tag at ~5.6x 2024E EV/EBIT), which leads us to lower our group EBIT estimates by roughly SEK 200m, to SEK 212m for 2024 and SEK 244m for 2025. Due to M&A, the SEK 380m net cash position transforms to net debt of SEK ~760m in 2024E (2.0x ND/EBITDA). We raise our multiples-based fair value range to SEK 65-94 (64-69), corresponding to 2024E EV/EBIT of 8-10x. Marketing material commissioned by Ferronordic.

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