Aktieanalys

Ferronordic: Chugging along for now - Nordea

Nordea Publicerad: 31 Oct 2022 07:51

We expect a decent Q3 report on 11 November, with group adjusted EBIT down 33% y/y, as Russia/CIS continues to decline and Germany remains loss-making. We lift 2022E earnings due to better mix in Russia, but leave 2023E-24E relatively flat. For 2023, we forecast 81% lower adjusted EBIT than in 2021. With the SEK ~321m compensation from Volvo, we raise our full-year DPS to SEK 5.0 (up ~250%) for 2022E, and now forecast ND/EBITDA of 0x by year-end. We raise our SOTP-based fair value range to SEK 24-56 (22-50). The lower end is based on our 2023E and an inventory sell-off in 2022. The upper end includes Germany at a 5% margin (up from 2% in 2023E, adding SEK 31 per share at an EBIT margin of about 8x). Marketing material commissioned by Ferronordic.

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