Energy Save: Aira partnership now up and running - ABG

22% sales growth (ABGSCe +24%), losses to gradually improve
EBIT ests roughly unchanged, 5-8% margins FY'25/26e-'26/27e
12-6x EBIT '25e-'26e, FV range SEK 28-74


Continued sequential sales growth

Energy Save saw good growth both y-o-y (+22% vs. ABGSCe +24%) and q-o-q (+18%), as the Aira partnership is now starting to contribute to revenues (we estimate SEK >40m) within Residential (SEK 57m vs. ABGSCe 49m). However, the market remains weak, and the non-Aira sales as well as Commercial will likely remain subdued into 2025e. That said, we expect the Aira partnership to drive 17% growth q-o-q also in fiscal Q1'24/25, and ~80% growth for FY'24/25. EBIT came in at -7m, and -5m adjusted for one-off costs (ABGSCe -5m), and we expect losses to gradually improve in the next four quarters, before Energy Save returns to profitability in H1'25e. Although working capital was higher than anticipated, as inventory will likely be released first once non-Aira sales start to materially improve, we still expect Energy Save's net cash position to support growth until FCF turns positive in 2026e.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/energy-save/Equity-research/2024/6/energy-save---aira-partnership-now-up-and-running/