Embellence Group: Large orders in comps distort Q1'25e - ABG

Report due 6 May 2025
Q1e net sales of SEK 209m, EBITA of SEK 34m
We reiterate our fair value range of SEK 35-42


Q1e: Flat EBITA growth

We expect little change in the underlying momentum from Q4, meaning a sequential acceleration in Boråstapeter, Cole & Son, Wall & Decò and Pappelina on easier comps. Worth noting for Q1 is that Artscape is facing particularly tough comps because of a large order a year ago. Therefore, we forecast a 35% organic sales decline in the segment, which explains our -3% organic growth in Q1'25e for the Group. We expect external manufacturing to report strong growth in Q1, reaching the new run-rate sales level since Q2'24, after which growth should normalise towards the end of the year. We fine-tune our gross margin and opex estimates, and expect ~flat EBITA growth in Q1'25 on a tough EBITA growth comp. Updated FX (a strong SEK) leads us to 3-4% lower EBITA for '25e-'27e.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/embellence-group/Equity-research/2025/4/embellence-group---large-orders-in-comps-distort-q125e/