Elanders: Q1 comps looking beatable - ABG

Q1 report due on Friday 21 April
We expect margin expansion against easy comps
'23e the 'cash flow year', lease adj. FCF yield at 17%


Q1e: we expect margin expansion in both segments

We expect Elanders to report Q1 sales of SEK 3,775m, up 12% y-o-y (4.7% org, 6.9% FX, 0.4% M&A), with organic growth helped by a continued strong performance in Bergen Logistics, which was acquired in mid-Q4'22 and is now considered fully organic. We estimate an EBITA of SEK 230m (+23% y-o-y), for a margin of 6.1% (5.5%), with an expected margin improvement in both reporting segments. For Print & Packaging Solutions, we note that H1'22 comps are particularly weak due to major strikes in Finnish paper mills that choked supply and drove up input costs. For Supply Chain Solutions, we expect a less drastic y-o-y improvement, although more stable inputs (mainly fuel costs) should help margins slightly.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/elanders/Equity-research/2023/4/elanders---q1-comps-looking-beatable/