Catella: Strong setup for earnings expansion - ABG

Earnings growth to pick up in 2025
EBIT raised by 3% for 2025e
2025e-26e EV/EBIT of 4x with easy comps


Strong end to the year, with an intriguing outlook

Transaction activity has started to show promising signs, where volumes in Europe are up by 22% in Q4 vs. 2023. This benefited the company, which delivered a stronger-than-expected Q4 in which EBIT of SEK 63m (8m) was 19% above ABGSC expectations and 13% above FactSet consensus. The AUM base in Q4 was up 2% q-o-q (SEK 4bn) at SEK 155bn. This was above ABGSC's forecast. Looking ahead, we expect AUM growth to pick up as net inflow development and valuation headwinds should benefit from the lower rate environment. In addition, with market rates coming down, we expect to see transaction activity improve further, with Catella's earnings generation following suit.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/catella/Equity-research/2025/2/catella---strong-setup-for-earnings-expansion/