Catella: Muted activity to remain for Q2'24 - ABG

Investment management to be main earnings contributor in Q2
Continued weak market activity makes us cut 2024e EBIT by 11%
2024e EV/EBIT of 4x with 3-4% dividend yield


Activity remains muted for Q2

For the Q2’24 report (due 21 August), we expect EBIT of SEK 24m (SEK 90m). We anticipate muted transaction activity to persist, which is negative for Catella's earnings. Looking at the operational segments, we estimate that the AUM within Investment Management (IM) will be down 1% q-o-q to SEK 150bn, driven by unfavourable FX. We expect the segment to deliver an operating profit of SEK 41m (SEK 111m), which is a slight improvement compared to the levels seen for the last three quarters. We anticipate only a small earnings contribution from Principal Investments in the second quarter of SEK 5m (SEK 9m). For Corporate Finance, we expect SEK -17m (SEK -22m) in operating profit contribution from the segment as we forecast that the ongoing muted market activity has continued to be a burden. Our forecasts entail a gradual improvement in H2'24 as rates start to come down.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/catella/Equity-research/2024/8/catella---muted-activity-to-remain-for-q224/