Catella: Investment mgmt. to show the way in Q4 - ABG

Q4’22e EBIT of SEK 132m, Inv. mgmt the main earnings driver
Estimates only tweaked ahead of Q4'22e
2023e EV/EBIT of 6x with 4-6% dividend yield


Investment management the main earnings driver in Q4e

For the Q4’22 report, due on 10 February, we expect a group EBIT of SEK 132m (145m). Looking at the operational segments, we estimate that the AUM within Investment Management (IM) will shrink 2% q-o-q to SEK 137bn in Q4e, where the sequential drop is driven by the divestments in Germany and the Netherlands, transactions flagged by management already in the Q3 report. We expect the segment will deliver an operating profit of SEK 103m, up 29% y-o-y, helped by performance fees. Within Principal Investments, we expect no major earnings contribution for the fourth quarter, except for the remaining SEK 30m connected to the Norrköping transaction. Lastly, we expect SEK 14m in operating profit contribution from the Corporate Finance segment, a yearly decline given lower transaction activity in the current market environment. In terms of capital repatriation, we expect a DPS of SEK 1.5 to be announced in the quarter, hence we expect the company will continue to prioritise keeping a strong and well-capitalised balance sheet.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/catella/Equity-research/2023/2/catella---investment-mgmt.-to-show-the-way-in-q4/