Catella: Challenging market start for 2024 - ABG

Market activity remains muted
EBIT estimates cut by 3% for 2025e-26e
2024e EV/EBIT of <4x with 4% dividend yield


Market activity muted in Q1

Following a more positive outlook at the end of 2023, the market returned to being more hesitant at the start of 2024, which negatively impacted Catella, whose Q1 report came in short of both FactSet consensus and ABGSC's expectations on EBIT. The AUM was flattish q-o-q, with FX tailwinds offseting a finalised asset management mandate outflow in the UK of SEK ~6bn. Transaction volumes remain at historically very low levels, leading to low earnings contributions from the different operational segments. In the short term, we expect to continue to see a muted market. However, as we expect interest rates to fall, we expect to see transaction activity gradually improve, and with it, Catella's earnings generation.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/catella/Equity-research/2024/5/catella---challenging-market-start-for-2024/