Catella: A soft start to 2023e - ABG

Expect a slow start to Q1’23e, adj. EBIT of SEK 69m (110m)
Minor estimate revisions ahead of Q1'23e
2023e EV/EBIT of 5x with 5-8% dividend yield


We forecast a slow start to Q1'23e

For the Q1’23 report due on 5 May, we expect a softer quarter, with EBIT attributable to shareholders of SEK 69m (110m). Looking at the operational segments, we estimate that the AUM within Investment Management (IM) will be up 1% q-o-q to SEK 142bn. We expect the segment will deliver an operating profit of SEK 66m (SEK 47m), up 40% y-o-y, driven by a 13% higher AUM base and underlying scalability within the segment. We expect a small earnings contribution from Principal Investments in the first quarter of SEK 16m (98m), driven by the Vaggeryd divestment. Q1 and Q3 are both seasonally slower Corporate Finance quarters, given that fewer transactions generally occur. Add to that, the current market environment further reduces transaction activity given that buyers and sellers are further apart, which is why we forecast a SEK 2m (-22m) operating profit contribution from the Corporate Finance segment in Q1'23.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/catella/Equity-research/2023/5/catella---a-soft-start-to-2023e/