Careium: Well-guided soft growth in Q3 - ABG

Q3e: -1% organic sales growth y-o-y, 7% adj. EBITA margin
We decrease '25e-'26e sales by 2%
Trading at 10x-8x '25e-'26e adj. EV/EBITA


Negative sales growth on tough comps and market conditions

We forecast Q3 sales of SEK 214m and adj. EBITA of SEK 15m, corresponding to -2% y-o-y growth (-1% organic) and a margin of 7%. Careium downgraded its outlook for FY24 in September, commenting that Q3'24 is likely to show slightly negative growth. We expect market delays to impact Q3 growth mainly in the Nordics (+1% y-o-y) and UK & Ireland (-9% y-o-y). In addition to the market headwinds, Q3'23 represents a challenging comparison (+24% y-o-y sales growth), which will further impact Q3'24e growth. As we do not expect market conditions to impact costs, we expect limited changes in GM and opex dynamics from Q2'23. While we estimate FY'24 organic sales growth of 7% (company expects 5-10%), we highlight lighter comps in Q4.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2024/10/careium---well-guided-soft-growth-in-q3/