Careium: Revised estimates amid market delays - ABG

We cut '24e-'26e sales by 5-3% on outlook downgrade
Delays should result in pent-up demand
Share is trading at 12x-8x '24e-'26e EV/EBITA adj.


Short-term market headwinds tougher than expected

On Friday, Careium revised its 2024 outlook. It now expects org. sales growth of 5-10% (prev. 12-15%) and an EBIT margin of 7.5-10% (prev. unspecified). Demand has temporarily cooled due to the announced delays of the closure of old connectivity infrastructure in both the UK and Sweden in H1. Careium consequently expects growth in Q3'24e to be negative, but to turn positive again in Q4'24e (note lighter comps in Q4 y-o-y). On the positive side, cost control seems to remain solid, as the new EBIT margin guidance did not differ materially from our previous estimates of 9.1% (mid-point guidance at 8.75%) despite the lower top-line growth.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2024/9/careium---revised-estimates-amid-market-delays/