Careium: Caution in the market to weigh on growth - ABG

Q1e: Flat organic sales growth, 5.3% adj. EBITA margin
Expect Sweden to weigh on growth, awaiting ADDA 2025
Trading at 8.5x-7.2x '25e-'26e EV/EBITA adj.


Expect a soft start to the year

We expect Q1 sales and adj. EBITA of SEK 214m and SEK 11m, respectively, corresponding to y-o-y organic sales growth of -0.4% and a margin of 5.3%. We expect a soft quarter in the Nordics, as we believe that the Swedish market is cautious given the pending ADDA 2025 framework agreement, set to be finished in October. We expect the market headwinds in the UK & Ireland to remain, but we estimate sales being slightly more tilted towards product sales than in H2'24 on pent-up demand. We expect opex to increase by 13% y-o-y, mainly driven by R&D and admin costs. On margins, we expect a slightly lower GM y-o-y (42% vs. 43%), as we anticipate a lower GM in the Nordics due to lower volumes. Consequently, our estimated adj. EBITA margin of 5% is 5pp lower y-o-y (10% Q1'24). Keep in mind that Careium has guided for a softer H1 and a stronger H2 for FY'25, and that we expect a recovery in the later quarters.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/careium/Equity-research/2025/4/careium---caution-in-the-market-to-weigh-on-growth/