BTS Group: Positive recruitment would be great to see - ABG

Mixed demand between US (better) and Europe (weaker)
Recruitment market has improved, and could lead to growth
EBITA cut 3-6% on the Q1 miss, but FY guidance kept


Muted market set to wake up relatively soon

The global consulting market has been under pressure for some time, due to uncertainties regarding a potential recession. Clients have been somewhat hesitant to start new projects, but we are seeing better signs in the North American market, which grew an estimated 1% organically in Q1 after a tougher 2023 (-5% organic growth). We expect BTS as a group to grow 6% organically in 2024e, mainly from strength in North America and Other markets, while Europe is likely to be a drag (-4% organic growth in Q1). BTS' strength historically has been to never waste a crisis, and we would therefore find it supportive for its longer-term prospects if BTS took the opportunity to recruit people in this somewhat cooler labour market, as well as a short-term sign that demand is holding up. In Q1, however, the number of employees was down 1% vs Q4 and 7% y-o-y, which somewhat limits the near-term growth potential although there should be available capacity at current margins.

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