Bergs Timber: Profitability to recover when down cycle ends - ABG

Down cycle continues; Q3e sales SEK 878m, adj. EBITDA SEK 17m
Significant estimate revisions following change of analyst
Fair value SEK 25-75, trading at 7-4x '24e-'25e EV/EBITA, 9-5x P/E


Q3e: Down cycle continues, Hedlunda contributes positively

For Q3e we expect SEK 878m in sales, up 24% y-o-y (1% org., 8% FX, 15% M&A), as y-o-y comps ease significantly compared to Q2, and the Hedlunda acquisition contributes SEK 120m. We estimate adj. EBITDA of SEK 17m (SEK 46m), the decline driven by our expected lower profitability in the Sawn Wood and Energy & Logistics segments. This expectation is due to lower demand for sawn wood and lower energy prices. Our EPS estimate is SEK -0.21 (0.63), and we expect lease adj. FCF of SEK 61m (SEK 281m) with some seasonal WC release.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/bergs-timber/Equity-research/2023/10/bergs-timber---profitability-to-recover-when-down-cycle-ends/