Bergs Timber: Hold out for two more quarters - ABG

Q3 weakness likely to persist into Q4-Q1’23e
Recoveries in Q2-Q3’23e indicates clear improvements
EPS estimate changes by -2% to +2% in ’22-‘24e


Showcasing strong Windows and doors

Wood protection disappointed in Q3, with both sales and profitability falling short of expectations. Headwinds should continue for about two more quarters before recovering to growth and the segment’s sustainable profitability of ~12%, in our view. Bergs’ growing Joinery segment saw robust expansion thanks to continuously high demand in its Windows and doors sub-segment. Helped by acquisitions in this segment in ’22, we believe the EBITDA margin will improve from 9% (LTM as of Q3’22) to 12% in ’23. Sawn wood will see some short-term headwinds from high customer inventory and temporary production declines, and we believe the situation will have stabilised by mid ‘23.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/bergs-timber/Equity-research/2022/11/bergs-timber---hold-out-for-two-more-quarters/