Awardit: Organic growth to continue being solid in Q1 - ABG

Q1e: 10% org. growth and margin expansion y-o-y
Integration of Connex likely to hold back profitability
17% EBITA/sh CAGR in '22-'25e, trading at 10x EV/EBITA in '23e


Strong organic growth in a seasonally weak Q1

Awardit reports its Q1 on 9 May. We expect another quarter with stable organic growth of 10%, driven by solid volume growth in its loyalty programs and new clients for sales of SEK 206m (167m). We believe the physical gift card segment will hold back organic growth a bit, due to lower retail consumption. Seasonally, Q1 is the weakest quarter, both in terms of growth and margins. The recently acquired Connex also had a relatively weak Q1, similar to MBXP. We therefore forecast an adj. EBITA of SEK 13.5m (9.5m), for a margin of 6.6% (5.7%). The margin is up vs. 5.7% in Q1'22 mainly because of better volume in Prämie Direkt. In addition to this, we expect that SEK 5m in acquisition related one-offs will weigh on EBITA (adjusted for). For this reason, we expect reported EBITA of SEK 8.5m (5.4m) and EBIT of -2.4m (-3.5m).

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