Atria: We are in line with consensus for Q4E - Lower raw material prices possible in 2025 - Nordea

Ahead of Atria’s Q4 report, we maintain our estimates intact. We model EUR 16.4m adjusted EBIT for Q4E, in line with LSEG Data & Analytics consensus and up from EUR 9.4m a year ago. New poultry unit should support profitability while we note that closest peer and competitor in Finland, HKFoods was out with positive profit warning on 15 January stating successful Christmas sales. We and consensus expect EUR 0.72 DPS from 2024E, indicating some 6% dividend yield with around 50% payout ratio. For 2025E, we forecast slightly higher adjusted EBIT of EUR 71m, supported by 2% higher sales. We note clearly declined cereal prices which could drive feed costs lower and give further profitability support. We expect Atria to issue a positive guidance for 2025 while note that consensus is modelling flattish adjusted EBIT y/y. Our DCF- and multiples based fair value is EUR 15.5-19.0 per share.

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