Atria: Soft guidance is likely based on a weak H1 - Nordea

Atria's Q4 adjusted EBIT of EUR 9.4m fell clearly short of LSEG Data & Analytics consensus expectations. Atria Finland sales declined in all channels, while the ramp-up of the new poultry unit burdened profitability. The new facility in Nurmo is now fully operational and the company is optimising production. Atria expects adjusted EBIT to decline in 2024, which we view as cautious and likely based on expectations of a weak H1 performance. We expect the company to return to an improving EBIT trend in H2 2024 and we model flat y/y adjusted EBIT for 2024. Atria is expanding its offering through M&A in Sweden and we do not rule out further acquisitions. We derive a lower DCF- and multiples-based fair value range of EUR 11.6-14.2 (13.1-16.0) per Atria share. Marketing material commissioned by Atria.

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