Aspo: Shipping volumes will be down in 2023 y/y - Nordea

Q1 revenues were 3% below Refinitiv consensus and clean EBIT was 7% below. Aspo kept its full-year 2023 guidance intact, but the outlook for the ESL Shipping segment in Q2-Q4 2023 is not very strong. Shipping volumes in the steel and forest industries could remain weaker than last year. However, with the Russia exit expected to be finalised by the end of Q2, we believe that P/E multiples should again exceed 10x. The next large transaction could be the divestment of supramax vessels or even a minority stake in the ESL Shipping segment. We calculate a new fair value range of EUR 9.1-11.1 (9.8-12.0) per share for Aspo, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.

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