Aspo: Reshaping the company - Nordea

We expect a relatively good first quarter for ESL Shipping, due to increased q/q volumes, despite Finland's port strike and low yields in the shipping markets. Shipping volumes will likely improve further when new hybrid vessels start to arrive in late 2023. We maintain our fair value range of EUR 9.8-12.0 per share for Aspo, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. The company's EV/EBITDA was 8.8x on average in 2000-21, but is only 5.3x for 2022-24E. We expect the valuation to undergo a rerating after the divestment of the Russian operation is completed. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.

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