Arctic Paper: The paper cut is healing - ABG

Q1e: Clean EBIT of PLN 87m
Paper is improving – better demand and 10% supply cuts
Fair value range of SEK 40-80 per share


Q1e: Paper volumes are picking up, but so are pulp prices

We expect Q1 Paper EBIT of PLN 87m, down from PLN 98m in Q4'23. The main effects q-o-q are likely: PLN -11m from FX (paper prices flat), PLN +45m from better volumes, PLN -41m from higher pulp prices (NBSK +12%, BHKP + 25%, with 1m lag) and PLN -4m from higher chemical costs. Pulp EBIT will likely be PLN 40-50m better q-o-q, driven by higher pulp prices and volumes. Hence, we expect Q1 group EBIT of PLN 99m vs. PLN 67m in Q4'23. We expect Q2 Paper EBIT of PLN 70-80m, driven by higher pulp prices.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/arctic-paper/Equity-research/2024/4/arctic-paper---the-paper-cut-is-healing/