Arctic Paper: Still challenging, but price hikes help - ABG

Q1e: Clean paper EBIT of ~PLN 15m
Price hikes, but demand soft
Fair value range of SEK 34-75


Our earnings bridge

We expect Q1 Paper EBIT of ~PLN 15m, down from PLN 30m in Q4'24. The main effects q-o-q are likely: PLN -36m from lower paper prices, PLN +15m from better volumes and PLN +6m from higher pulp prices. Pulp EBIT will likely be ~PLN 7m lower q-o-q, driven by the continued rise in the prices of wood raw materials, negative market development on CTMP pulp (price/volume), and the weaker USD/SEK.Hence, we expect Q1 group EBIT of ~PLN -7m vs. PLN 11m in Q4'24. Q2 will likely be somewhat stronger than Q1 on by increased pulp and paper prices, which points to EBIT of PLN 20-30m.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/arctic-paper/Equity-research/2025/4/arctic-paper---still-challenging-but-price-hikes-help/