Arctic Paper: Better market trends provide some relief - ABG

Q4e: Clean EBIT of PLN 87m
Paper markets still weak, but demand better
Fair value range of SEK 40-80 per share


Q4e: Paper volumes are picking up

We expect Q4 Paper EBIT of PLN 87m, up from PLN 77m in Q3'23. Lower paper prices are offset by higher paper volumes. The main effects q-o-q are likely: PLN -3m from lower paper prices (UWF prices down 1% q-o-q, CWF -1%), PLN +13m from better volumes and PLN -2m from higher chemical costs. Pulp EBIT will likely be PLN 20-30m weaker q-o-q driven by lower pulp volumes and more maintenance. Hence, we expect Q4 group EBIT of PLN 78m vs. PLN 95m in Q3'23. We expect Q1 Paper EBIT of PLN 50-70m driven by lower volumes in January (only 20 operating days in Jan), and slightly lower paper prices.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/arctic-paper/Equity-research/2024/1/arctic-paper---better-market-trends-provide-some-relief/