Alcadon: Mixed near-term outlook - ABG

Q3 report due on Friday, 27 October
Data centres strong, FTTH outlook muted
Trading at 11x '23e EV/EBITA (adj.)


We expect strength in data centres, weakness in FTTH

We expect Alcadon to report Q3 sales of SEK 375m, up 30% y-o-y (-1% org, +25% M&A, +6% FX). We expect a split picture between the company's different verticals, with continued strong growth in data centres but fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) weighing on organic growth. Meanwhile, the legacy business, structured cabling, should remain decently stable, but is hurt somewhat by the low newbuild activity. We expect a soft gross margin due to the weak SEK, as Alcadon has significant COGS in USD and EUR, but this is still up y-o-y as Q3'22 was also a weaker quarter. All in all, we expect EBITA of SEK 21.3m, for a margin of 5.7% (5.8%).

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/alcadon/Equity-research/2023/10/alcadon---mixed-near-term-outlook/