Litium: Recovery in volumes still ahead - ABG

We trim '24e-'26e ARR by 1% on continued macro weakness
Still awaiting a return in B2C business momentum
EV/ARR ~2x, '24e EV/EBITDA ~9x


What to look for in Q3'24e

For Q3 we expect a reported ARR of SEK 71m and sales of SEK 17m. These figures imply y-o-y growth rates of ~5% and 3%, respectively. We also anticipate an EBITDA of SEK 3.3m, which corresponds to a margin of ~20%, and operating cash flow of SEK ~3m. Given the linearity of the ARR growth and the large share of recurring, fixed revenues, it is unlikely that sales will be more volatile than history suggests. It is still unlikely that volumes will recover during H2'24 for B2B and B2C clients, and for Litium this means that the company's operating leverage remains unused. We argue that it is a matter of time before conditions improve to the degree that this operating leverage can be unlocked.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/Litium/Equity-research/2024/10/litium---recovery-in-volumes-still-ahead/