Elanders: Expecting margins to trough in Q1 - Nordea

Despite the recent acquisition of Bishopsgate, we lower adjusted EBIT by 2-3% for 2024E-26E ahead of Elanders' Q1 2024E report. We continue to struggle to find short-term data points that indicate rebounding demand. Visibility is low, but we look for margins to reach a trough in Q1 2024E, and successively increase from here – supported by recent margin-accretive M&A, new customer contracts, and the phase-out of the buy-and-sell operations. As such, we remain highly encouraged that Elanders will be well suited to better capitalise on the returning demand with a solid margin trajectory in the longer term. We now pencil in a lease-adjusted net debt/EBITDA of 2.9x for 2024E, and lower our multiples-based fair value range to SEK 90-150 (94-157).

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