Clavister: Order bonanza - ABG

Q3e: sales +17% EBITDA + 39% y-o-y
Positive news flow incl. strong order intake and NATO verification
80% gross margins, 15% sales CAGR at 11-7x EBITDA '25e-'26e


We expect continued good delivery in Q3

We expect Q3 to follow the positive trend seen in recent quarters, with solid underlying growth in the base business (Firewall/IAM) supported by deliveries on the Defence contracts, for sales of SEK 44m (+17% y-o-y, of which 21% organic and -4% FX). Clavister announced several interesting orders in the quarter, with a total initial value of SEK 17m, with the potential to ramp up to SEK 43-48m in the next few years. One of the orders was a SEK 5m software licence from a European defence contractor that could develop into a partnership similar to that with BAE. While these orders should have a limited impact on Q3, they provide good support for the ARR and future growth. We find this encouraging and a testament to management's work with driving more efficiencies in the sales organisation over the last year. We expect opex to remain relatively stable y-o-y (SEK 25m vs. SEK 24m in Q3'23) rendering an EBITDA of SEK 10m, an increase of 38% from SEK 7m in Q3'23 and an EBIT that is closing in on break-even (SEK -1m vs. SEK -5m in Q3'23).

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Equity-research/2024/9/clavister---order-bonanza/