Clavister: New defence partnership with Thales - ABG

Clavister could provide cybersecurity to Thales' SOTAS communication system
A tangible revenue case for Clavister, in our view
Could see deliveries already in 2025


Clavister to deliver cybersecurity for Thales' communication systems

Clavister announced that it has signed a long-term strategic agreement with Thales, a global provider of leading weapon and communication systems for the aerospace and defence industry, in collaboration with the Swedish IT company Blackthorn. As far as we understand, the three companies will work together to develop cybersecurity applications for Thales' existing communication technology. More specifically, we believe that Thales will incorporate Clavister's software into its communication system (called SOTAS, used in most of the Swedish Armed Forces' vehicles). As such, we think there is a quite tangible revenue potential related to this partnership. Because the SOTAS system is built-in to most vehicle systems and not just the CV90, we see good potential for Clavister to broaden its reach significantly. Compared to its current partnership with BAE Systems, where Clavister provides hardware and software to the CV90 at 40-50% gross margins (ABGSC est.), we estimate the potential deliveries with Thales to be pure software, with ~100% incremental margins priced at SEK 20k-40k per vehicle installation. An installation of 500 vehicles could therefore generate an EBIT contribution of ~SEK 15m for Clavister, according to our analysis. We also estimate that deliveries could start in 2025, which we expect would drive positive consensus estimate revisions.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/clavister/Equity-research/2024/6/clavister---new-defence-partnership-with-thales/