Awardit: A stable quarter excl. Denmark turbulence - ABG

Q4 due on 20 February; we forecast -2% org. growth
EBITA cut 1% on '24e-'25e because of FX
4.6x-3.6x EV/EBITA with 15-17% FCF yield on '24e-'25e


-2% organic growth and SEK 63m adj. EBITA in Q4e

We forecast stable performance in the Nordic business ex. Denmark in Q4, driven by the continued solid growth of its longstanding loyalty programmes with good profitability for EBITA of SEK 36m in the region. Adjusted for the one-time effects of the internal audit, we expect EBITA around zero for MBXP (Denmark) which is an improvement versus Q2 and Q3, due to seasonality but also as the negative effect from the low-margin gift cards sold in Q4'22 is running off. For the DACH business, we forecast SEK 27m EBITA; we believe a challenging market has continued to impact Prämie negatively, but that it will turn from a YTD loss to a slight profit on the year. We expect good performance for Connex, meanwhile, which is expected to generate all of its annual EBITA in Q4. All in all, we forecast SEK 432m sales (-2% org., +41% M&A) and SEK 63m adj. EBITA, while the one-time costs will weigh on the reported net profit of SEK 1m for the group in Q4.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/awardit/Equity-research/2024/1/awardit---a-stable-quarter-excl.-denmark-turbulence/