Rottneros: Better pulp markets despite challenging H2'23 - ABG

Q3e: Clean EBIT of SEK -28m
Pulp futures sharply up – Chinese pulp prices up 19%
Fair value range: SEK 8-16/sh


Pulp/pulpwood spread will be challenging in H2'23

We expect Q3 clean EBIT of SEK -28m, down from SEK 57m in Q2'23 and SEK 149m in Q3'22. The main effects q-o-q are likely: SEK -90m from lower pulp prices (-9% NBSK and -23% BHKP), SEK +10m from FX, SEK +3m from pulp price hedges, SEK -5m from increased wood costs (higher prices in Sweden but less Baltic sourcing), SEK +5m from lower chemical and distribution costs (caustic soda price down ~17% q-o-q in Western Europe), SEK +12m from seasonally lower personnel expenses and SEK -20m in planned maintenance. We arrive at Q3 clean EBIT of ~SEK -28m. Q4 will be weaker than Q3 driven by more maintenance costs. We expect Q4 clean EBIT of SEK -75-90m.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/rottneros/Equity-research/2023/10/rottneros---better-pulp-markets-despite-challenging-h223/