Nolato: Somewhat better than expected - ABG

- EBITA SEK 235m (+5% vs. ABG, +3% vs. IR consensus)
- Medical Solutions +5% vs. cons on EBITA
- We expect consensus EBITA to come up by 2-3%

Q3 outcome
Sales came in at SEK 2,401m (+6% vs. ABG 2,271m, +4% vs. IR cons 2,308m), up 3% y-o-y, of which organic growth was +5% (ABG -1%). EBITA was SEK 235m (+5% vs ABG 224m, +3% vs. cons 229m), for an EBITA margin of 9.8% (ABG 9.9%, cons 9.9%). The most important segment - Medical Solutions - was 5% above cons on EBITA, and the company notes particularly strong volumes for drug delivery products and a good increase y-o-y in in vitro diagnostics (compared to a weak Q3'23). Free cash flow was 191m (ABG 120m), for an FCF/net profit conversion of 116%.

Estimate changes and outlook
Nolato expects a weaker auto market to weigh on the Engineered Solutions segment in Q4. The company does not quantify this effect, but we note that cons currently has a 12% q-o-q EBITA decline in Engineered into Q4, so this seems largely incorporated in estimates, in our view. For Medical, it gives no concrete outlook statements. We expect consensus EBITA to come up by 2-3%.

Valuation and conference call details
On our pre-Q2 estimates the share is trading at 16x '24e EV/EBITA; which goes to 14x for '25e (5Y average f12m EV/EBITA 15.2x)

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/nolato/Equity-research/2024/10/nolato---somewhat-better-than-expected/