Green Landscaping Group: Europe and Sweden to drive earnings - ABG

Q2 report due Friday, 23 August, at 07:00 CET
'24e-'26e EBITA up 2-3%; 7% CAGR '23-'26e
12-9x EBITA '24e-'26e, 8-9% FCF yields


Stable conditions, double-digit EBITA growth

We expect a relatively stable quarter without significant support from any weather effects. Activity in landscaping and construction should still be subdued, but we believe that activity outside Sweden has held up relatively well. We therefore expect a 3% organic sales decline (+8% Q1'24), with -4% in Sweden, -3% in Norway and -2% in Rest of Europe. This together with M&A yields group sales of SEK 1,570m, +5% y-o-y. Adj. EBITA growth should accelerate, as low-margin projects in Sweden are now close to being finished, which combined with margin-accretive growth in Rest of Europe should yield 11% growth y-o-y, to SEK 157m, for a margin of 10.0% (9.4%). Cash flow should remain solid (at least ~50% of EBITA), which together with the Q1'24 pf gearing of 2.4x allows for additional M&A activity in H2'24. We expect gradually improving organic growth, and higher margins y-o-y, to support ~10% adj. EBITA growth also in Q3-Q4.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/green-landscaping-group/Equity-research/2024/8/green-landscaping-group---europe-and-sweden-to-drive-earnings/