Catella: Stellar Q2 on the cards - ABG

Record strong Q2e to be driven by PIM & Principal Inv.

Underlying EBIT estimates raised by 3% for 2022

2022e EV/EBIT of 5.3x with appealing dividend yield

Record strong Q2’22e to be driven by PIM & Principal Inv.
For Q2’22 (report due on 19 August), we expect EBIT of SEK 376m compared to SEK -31m in Q2’21. Looking at the operational segments, we estimate that Property Investment Management (PIM) will deliver its strongest quarter to date, with operating profit of SEK 177m, up 110% y-o-y, helped by performance fees from the European residential fund. Within Principal Investments, Infrahubs divested both its Ljungby and Örebro projects in Q2’22 for SEK ~580m, where Catella’s ownership of the development projects amounts to 40% in Ljungby and 50% in Örebro. These two divestments should significantly boost the earnings growth in the quarter. Lastly, we expect a weaker quarter for the Corporate Finance segment, driven by fewer transactions in the quarter following the volatile capital markets.

Underlying EBIT estimates increased by 3% for 2022
We have increased our 2022 estimates within Principal Investments following the announced divestments of logistic properties in Ljungby and Örebro. We have also raised our EBIT expectations for Q2’22 for PIM, mainly driven by the performance fees from the European residential fund, leading to an ATH quarter for the segment. For Corporate Finance we have cut our estimates on the assumption of lower transaction activity following the volatile capital markets. In sum, we raise 2022e adjusted EBIT by 3% (17% on reported EBIT basis, which however includes non-controlling interest). Our 2023 and 2024 estimates are left broadly unchanged.

2022e EV/adj. EBIT of 5.3x, >50% below average of peers
Catella has entered a harvesting period, with 7 projects scheduled to be divested in 2022, including the Kaktus project in H2’22. The company is facing easy comps, which is why we expect strong growth throughout the year. In our view, the ...
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