GreenMobility - High ambitions cost money
Momentum in usage per car during Q4 Higher than expected roll-out costs for 2021 guidance… …and new share issue already planned for 2021 In-line adj. Q4 with momentum in user activity per car GreenMobility delivered its full-year report with Q4 revenue of DKK 11 (ABGSC at DKK 12m), and EBIT of DKK -26 (ABGSCe at DKK -10m). The company thus ended 2020 with momentum in customers’ and activity per car with 116,000 customers (ABGSCe: 105,000) with driving minutes totaling 25. 8m for 2020.
This results in average trip minutes of 43 minutes and 2. 3 trips per customer during Q4’20. There are some negative COVID-19 effects on the number of trips explaining the flat q-o-q revenue development.
For the quarter, GreenMobility booked one-offs of DKK 18m from front-loaded costs associated with its warrant programme (non-cash), plus costs associated with its DKK 75m share issue in October ’20 and the Nasdaq Main Market listing in Copenhagen. Adjusting for these costs, Q4 was in line with our estimates. Further equity financing needed during 2021 For 2021, GreenMobility guides for revenue of DKK 70-80m (ABGSCe: DKK 65-75m) and EBT of DKK -100 to DKK -110m (ABGSCe: DKK -60 to –DKK 80m) where DKK 40-50m is rollout costs of new cities in order to add 1-1,500 new EVs across 4-6 cities.
The company targets full-year positive EBT in Copenhagen and break-even in Aarhus, where we have no visibility into the P&L on a city level. In this report, we add roll-out costs of DKK 27m and DKK 36m for 2021-22e and thus decrease EBIT by ~40%. GreenMobility aims to raise additional capital on the equity market during 2021 and also plans to explore additional funding from bonds, asset finance and loans.
Top end of fair value range reduced: DKK 100-240 (100-270) We lower the top end of our fair value range slightly and now set it to DKK 100-240 (100-270). We continue to estimate positive free cash flow in 2027 and we expect the company to trade at ~5x EV/sales in ’22e in line with its EV a.
