Etteplan: Weaker result to be expected - Evli Research
Weaker Q2 but rapid adaption should limit some downside
Etteplan will report Q2 results on August 11th. Earnings uncertainty is clearly elevated due to the coronavirus pandemic, with Q1 challenges having been mainly limited to operations in China. Etteplan adapted rapidly to the situation through temporary layoffs and reducing its cost base which together with the order backlog should according to our estimates still yield a fairly decent profitability given the circumstances. We expect revenue of EUR 63.3m, representing a perceived organic growth decline of approx. 9%, and group EBITA to decline to EUR 4.1m (Q2/19: EUR 6.5m). With the loan agreements made earlier we do not see any significant risk to Etteplan’s financial position.
Uncertainty remains elevated in 2020
The development in 2020 remains shrouded by uncertainty due to the pandemic but we currently expect the biggest dent to be seen in Q3 and Q4 to also remain weaker. The Engineering Solutions service area will have some challenging times ahead while Software and Embedded Solutions should be rather resilient due to digitalization demand. Reported new order values in Q2 for some key customers indicate a double-digit decline y/y, with expectations of demand picking up towards the end of the year. Etteplan’s customer base is relatively diverse and thankfully for instance automotive and aviation, which have been hit hard by the pandemic, account for only a small share of revenue.
HOLD with a target price of EUR 8.3 (8.0)
We have made minor upwards adjustments to our 2020 estimates following an in our view somewhat improved sentiment post-Q1 and revisions based on updates on temporary layoffs. We adjust our target price to EUR 8.3 (8.0) and retain our HOLD-rating.