Cibus: Q1 report largely as expected, the company now eyes also markets outside of the Nordics - Nordea

Cibus posted Q1 net operating income of EUR 21.8m, up 20% y/y on the back of acquisitions and 2% above our and 0% above Infront consensus estimates. Income from property management (IFPM) was EUR 14.6m, up 26% y/y and 3% above our estimate and 4% above consensus. IFPM included EUR 0.9m of positive exchange rate differences and adjusting for this, IFPM was 2% below consensus and 4% below our estimate. Fair value changes were EUR 27m positive (~2% of portfolio). Earnings capacity-based IFPM per share increased from EUR 1.25 at the end of Q4 2021 to EUR 1.34 at the end of Q1 owing announced M&A. Cibus is currently trading at a ~40% premium to EPRA NRV, which we find more than justified given the stable operations and strong dividend focus. Cibus has an edge to its mainly unlisted peers in that it can pay with its own shares, which makes Cibus an attractive compounder case in Nordic real estate, justifying the premium valuation. We conclude that the report was largely in line with expectations and Cibus is well-positioned to execute on its growth targets to increase its portfolio to EUR 2.5-3bn by the end of 2023. However, the increased volatility in the Swedish real estate credit market could continue to weigh on the shares.

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