Cibus: Compounder case on hold for now - Nordea

In the current environment, we believe Cibus will find it hard to achieve its growth target by the end of 2023 and investment grade (IG) rating in the foreseeable future, as the credit market (especially for real estate companies) is challenging. Cibus will need to refinance a EUR 135m bond maturing in September 2023, which will be a challenge. However, on the positive side, grocery-anchored retail premises have not experienced much yield compression over the past few years. Hence, we believe Cibus faces limited risk of asset value declines amid rising interest rates. We lower our fair value range to SEK 140-200 (180-240), based on a combination of P/ EPRA NRV and peer group valuations, driven by a lower valuation for Cibus's compounder peers, higher interest rates and increased credit spreads. We also argue that the compounder case is on hold, as the share is trading at a slight discount to EPRA NRV. Our fair value range implies a 2023E P/EPRA NRV of 0.68-0.97x and 2023E adjusted P/E of 10.2-14.5x. Marketing material commissioned by Cibus.

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