Napatech - Q4 slightly below, but solid 2021 target

Q4 slightly below expectations Targets 8-18% FX adj. growth in ‘21e, in line with ABGSC Limited estimate changes expected Q4 revenue and EBITDA slightly below expectations Napatech delivered Q4 sales of DKK 52.5m, down 3% y-o-y, i.e. right below the midpoint of the DKK 43-63m guidance and 3% below ABGSC at DKK 54m. In USD terms, however, revenues were up 4% y-o-y.

The gross margin was 72%, i.e. in line with our estimate, resulting in a 71.5% margin on a FY basis, i.e. in the higher end of the 70-72% guidance.

EBITDA was DKK 11.7m (22% margin) vs. ABGSC at DKK 12.4m. Targets 2021 revenue of DKK 210-230m, in line with ABGSC Napatech launches its 2021 guidance and expects revenues of USD 35-38.3m, corresponding to DKK 210-230m, implying y-o-y growth of 8-18% (17.8-29.1% y-o-y growth in USD terms).

The company guides gross margin for 2021 of 70-72%, i.e. in line with our estimate. On a midpoint basis, this is in line with our estimate of DKK 220m.

The company expects EBITDAC for 2021 of ~DKK 26m, i.e. 12% above our estimate of DKK 23.4m. Expect limited estimate changes on the back of the report Overall, we find the Q4 report neutral, with results slightly below our expectations, offset by a somewhat solid 2021 guidance, with strong underlying growth and improved margins.

We expect limited estimate changes following the report..