Napatech - Long-term growth in focus on CMD

On track to reach 2022 aspirations Expects 30% from 2022+ vs ABGSC at ~25% Expect cons to lift long-term estimates by 3-8% 2022 aspirations ~8% above our estimate Napatech is out with its CMD material. The highlight of the presentation material is the company’s growth aspirations. Napatech reiterates its 2019-2022 aspiration of 20-30% revenue CAGR. At the midpoint (in USD terms) this implies ~35% y-o-y growth in 2022.

Assuming that Napatech reaches the midpoint of its 2021 revenue guidance, this would translate into revenue of ~DKK 297m in 2022, which is 8% above our current estimate of DKK 273m. Expects 30% annual growth from 2022+ vs ABGSC at ~25% In addition, Napatech announces new long-term aspirations, saying it expects the 30% annual growth rate to continue from 2022 and onwards, reaching USD 100m in revenue by 2024-2025. We argue that the new aspirations should be largely achievable if the company proves successful in its virtualization strategy.

We currently estimate annual growth of 25% in the period 2022-2023e and as such the new aspirations highlights the strong upside risk to our estimates. Expect cons to lift long-term estimates by 3-8% Overall, we find the new aspirations as positive and on the back of the new long term aspirations we expect cons to lift long term estimates by 3-8%. The presentation will be held at 14:30 CET..