Vestum: Services to remain weaker in Q4 - ABG

Q4 report due Thursday, 13 February
We cut adj. EBITA 4%/3%/3% on '24e/'25e/'26e
Share is trading at 9-7x EBITA on '25e-'26e


Q4 expectations

We believe that the positive business momentum has continued for Water in Q4, with 4% organic growth, while we expect Services to deliver negative but improving growth (-7% vs. -13% in Q3), supporting the view that the installation market has likely has bottomed. We see Infra delivering slight negative growth (-3%), although this marks an improvement vs. Q3 (-11%), in part due to the divestments announced on 29 November. We expect sales of SEK 1,183m, -24% y-o-y (-3% organic, 0% FX, -21% structure), with organic growth improving from -9% in Q3. We expect adj. EBITA of SEK 114m, -32% y-o-y whereof ~5-10% to be organic decline, for a margin of 9.7%. Looking into Q1, we expect continued improvements for the installation units and growth in both Water and Infra to lead to slight positive organic sales growth for the group of 2%.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/vestum/Equity-research/2025/1/vestum---services-to-remain-weaker-in-q4/