Trianon - Slight NOI miss but an overall solid report - ABG

Net operating income -1% vs ABGSCe, -3% vs cons.
+0.7% in value changes (ABGSCe +0.9%)
Positive net leasing of SEK 3.7m (3.8m)

Adj. for one-offs, IFPM was broadly in line with estimates
Rental income came in at SEK 171m (151m), in line with our forecast and 3% below Infront consensus. Net operating income (NOI) of SEK 100m (88m) was slightly below ABGSCe and 3% below consensus. The deviation in income from property management (IFPM) was slightly lower (-2% vs ABGSCe) due to better net financials than we had expected. When adjusting for a one-off (SEK 3m) in central admin, IFPM is +2% vs ABGSCe (-1% vs consensus). IFPM per share in the earnings capacity came up 1.6% from the previous quarter. Net leasing summed up to SEK 3.7m (3.8m) and SEK 5.6m (10.2m) TTM, and the occupancy rate stayed intact q-o-q and y-o-y at 95%. Trianon renovated 46 (40) apartments in Q1, compared to its full-year target of 200 apartments.
EPRA NRVPS +2.4% q-o-q to SEK 148 Unrealised and realised value changes amounted to SEK 93m (279m) or +0.7%, we expected 0.8%. Value-enhancing investments in existing properties, newly signed leases in the commercial portfolio and project gains explain the value change. EPRA NRVPS increased 2.4% q-o-q and 37% y-o-y (adj. for dividends) to SEK 148, 0% versus our forecast of SEK 149. The valuation yield fell 30bps q-o-q in Q4 but stayed flat (3.9%) in Q1. The valuation yields for community service properties appears to be down somewhat. Net LTV was 54.6%, versus 55.2% in Q4’21. The average interest rate remained at 1.9%.
Share trades 20-30% above Balder and Wallenstam On pre-Q1 numbers and 2022 estimates, the share is trading at ~24x P/IFPM and 0.97x P/EPRA NRV. These valuation metrics are some 20-30% above the average of Infront consensus numbers for the residential peers Balder and Wallenstam. Läs mer på ABG Sundal Collier

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/trianon/Equity-research/2022/5/trianon---slight-noi-miss-but-an-overall-solid-report/