Trianon: Q3 review - ABG

Small estimate changes in ’22e-‘24e
Solid demand for CSP and strong net leasing
Refinancing secures liquidity and adds stability


Valuation yield >4% once CSP tenants move in

We note strong net leasing (SEK 7.2m), supporting management’s message of solid demand for its commercial portfolio. The Entré project approaches completion (external valuation in Q4e), and once already signed lease agreements in its community service property (CSP) segment are completed (Q1’23e) and generating income, Trianon’s valuation yield should exceed 4%, according to management. Since TRIAN’s previously largest project (Kvarteret Hanna) was converted to a JV project in Q3, we have lowered project profits and increased value gains from JV’s. We assume an IFPM effect from this project in Q3-Q4 ’24e, but have lowered IFPM from JV’s in Q4’22e-Q2’24e on higher energy costs, as this, alongside a one-off, explained the miss vs. our est. in Q3. In sum, these changes resut in limited effects in ’22e-‘24e.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/trianon/Equity-research/2022/11/trianon---q3-review/