Svedbergs: Key brands expected to hold up - ABG

Q4 report due 8 February
We forecast sales of SEK 447m, EBITA of SEK 53m
Share trading at '23e-'24e EV/EBITA of 7-6x


We expect solid Svedbergs and Roper Rhodes results

We reiterate our view that the Group should hold up relatively well despite current macroeconomic worries. Assuming a lag of 12-18m from build starts, we believe project demand will continue to hold up and with a more premium-tilted offering. We expect the Svedbergs brand to be strong with an org. growth of 10% in Q4e. Given Cassoe's exposure to the interest-sensitive Danish market, the outlook is soft, and we estimate an org. decline of 10% in Q4e. For the consumer-centric brand Macro, we expect an org. decline of 12% in Q4e, as consumer sentiment in Sweden stays soft. For Roper Rhodes we expect the Q3 momentum to hold into Q4'22e, and we forecast a SEK 201m contribution to net sales in the quarter, implying FY'22e growth of ~7% y-o-y for the new acquisition according to our calculations. All in all, we expect sales of SEK 447m (+59% y-o-y, +3% org.) and a SEK 53m EBITA for a 12% margin (flat y-o-y) after price increases to offset cost inflation.

Länk till analysen i sin helhet: https://cr.abgsc.com/foretag/svedbergs/Equity-research/2023/1/svedbergs---key-brands-expected-to-hold-up-/